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On November 6, President Obama was reelected with roughly 100 electoral votes more than challenger Mitt Romney. What went wrong for Romney? Are there lessons the Republican Party should take away from the presidential and congressional outcomes?

“The Republican Party has two basic problems. One is that Romney and the top leadership implemented a winning election strategy... for 1980,” says Patrick James, professor of international relations in the USC Dornsife College. “If you look at the demographics and voting proportions, the Reagan coalition would not win a majority today. The libertarian wing of the Republican Party must reassert itself, or the GOP will face oblivion.

“The second, specific manifestation is the presence of political extremists as candidates,” James adds. “In the Democratic Party, loony leftists are kept on the sidelines and do not obtain nomination. It is one thing to have extremists in the party; it’s another entirely when they are candidates. Rep. Todd Akin is the epicenter of this problem. In sum, the GOP triad of national security, economic and social conservatives has tipped over, with the extreme elements on the far right taking control to the point where the party is about as relevant as the Democratic Party in the years immediately following the Civil War.”

Christian Grose, associate professor of political science in the USC Dornsife College, doesn’t believe the situation is that dire for the Republican Party. “In some ways, Romney did very well, as he got very, very close,” Grose says. “I think there is a tendency to overanalyze and overstate mandates from big electoral vote wins that are small popular vote wins. The 2012 election is much more like the 2004 election than 2008. In 2004, like Romney, Democrat John Kerry almost got there and ran a very good campaign — but George W. Bush ran an even better campaign and turned out more supporters.

“In 2012, Romney ran a very good campaign, but Obama ran an even better campaign,” Grose says. “Microtargeting of different voters in the swing states by the Obama campaign mattered a lot in Obama holding a 1- to 4-point lead in most of the key swing states.

“There has been a lot of talk of changing demographics, and how that hurt Romney. I think that is only partially true, as demographics have not shifted that much since 2010, when the Republicans did very well in the midterm elections,” Grose points out. “What mattered was that a coalition of minority voters and white voters supported Obama, and in particular Latino voters supported Obama at an extremely high rate in key states such as Colorado. In states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa, Obama won because he persuaded and turned out more voters — and many of them were white voters who looked at the choice of Obama versus Romney and reluctantly chose Obama.”

The Congressional Races

“To me the biggest surprise of the night is how well the Democrats did in the Senate races. The Senate outcome is much more surprising than the presidential or House races,” Grose says. “The Democrats basically ran the table in almost all of the competitive races. Since the Senate has staggered elections, with only one-third of the membership up every two years, there are elections where one party has more seats exposed than others. The 2012 elections had 23 seats of senators who caucus with the Democratic Party up for reelection, but only 10 Republican seats up for reelection. Numerically, in a year in which the presidential election’s popular vote was so closely contested, I would have expected a few more Republican successes in more Republican-leaning states. Beating the numeric odds, all Democratic U.S. Senate seats were retained except one in Nebraska, while two Republican seats went to Democrats (in Indiana and Massachusetts) and a third former GOP seat in Maine was taken by an independent, Angus King, who may caucus with the Democrats once he is sworn in.
 
Grose adds: “The other overlooked story of the night is the growth in diversity among Democratic elected officials in the U.S. House. It looks likely that a majority of the U.S. House members affiliated with the Democratic Party will not be white males for the first time in history. This is a function of two things: 1) The Democratic Party lost a lot of moderate, competitive House seats in the 2010 GOP wave, and many of these seats had white men as representatives, and in 2012 the Democrats did not win many of these seats back and even lost a few more. 2) More women and minorities have run and won in new districts redrawn for 2012, and most of these districts are Democratic seats.”
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/11/election-postmortem.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/11/election-postmortem.html Campaign Management Election History Elections Feature Party Politics Voter Demographics Barack Obama demographics election 2004 election 2008 election 2010 election 2012 George W. Bush John Kerry Latinos Mitt Romney Ronald Reagan swing states voters Fri, 09 Nov 2012 09:00:00 -0800
President Barack Obama continues to hold a commanding lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among California voters, a lead which has held relatively steady over the past year. But support for Obama hasn’t yet reached the level the president achieved in 2008, according to the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

Statewide, 55 percent of voters support the Obama-Biden ticket, compared with 39 percent who back Romney-Ryan.

The gap has tightened slightly, by three percentage points since May, when 56 percent of voters said they supported Obama and 37 percent supported Romney.

In the 2008 presidential election, Obama captured nearly 61 percent of California voters.

Obama has earned support from women and Latino voters at roughly the same levels as he did during the 2008 presidential race, finds the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll. The poll shows that 73 percent of Latinos and 61 percent of women support Obama, while 19 percent of Latinos and 34 percent of women back Romney.

Romney leads Obama among white voters in California (49 to 46), and Obama holds a slim lead over Romney among male voters (48 to 44). Black voters overwhelmingly support Obama over Romney (93 to 4).

Eighty-four percent of registered Democrats favor Obama, while 10 percent are in favor of Romney. Among registered Republicans, 81 percent support Romney and 14 percent support Obama. “Decline to state” voters favor Obama over Romney, 58 percent to 34 percent.

The gap in support for Obama between younger voters and older voters remains large: Sixty-three percent of voters aged 18 to 49 support Obama, compared with 32 percent in that age group who favor Romney. Among voters 50 and older, 48 percent support Obama and 45 percent back Romney.

California Optimism on the Rise

While Californians are still largely skeptical about the direction in which the United States is headed, their optimism about the country’s future is at its highest point in recent years, according to the poll.

With the election just weeks away, the largest survey of registered voters in the state shows that a majority of Californians — 51 percent — still think the country is “seriously off on the wrong track,” compared with 39 percent who say things are headed in the right direction.

When this question was last asked, in August 2011, 73 percent said they believed the country was on the wrong track, compared with 16 percent who said the country was headed in the right direction.

“As California begins to see the first signs of economic recovery, the state’s voters are slightly more upbeat about the future than they were at the depths of the recession,” says Dan Schnur, director of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll and director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “But it’s been a difficult stretch over the last few years for California and its people, so it’s going to be awhile before we start seeing real levels of optimism again.”
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/california-poll-obama-optimism.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/california-poll-obama-optimism.html California In Brief Polling State Politics U.S. Economy Voter Demographics Barack Obama California politics demographics election 2008 Joe Biden Mitt Romney Paul Ryan polling recession Tue, 30 Oct 2012 09:00:00 -0800
With the November election looming, the fight to repeal the death penalty in California has gotten a lot closer, according to the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

In a 10-point swing since last month, 42 percent of voters now support repealing the death penalty and 45 percent oppose it. The survey respondents were read a brief statement describing Proposition 34, a ballot measure that would ban the death penalty and replace it with life imprisonment without the possibility of parole.

In September, 38 percent of voters supported Proposition 34, and 51 percent opposed it.

“There’s no question that there has been a sharp shift in favor of a ban on the death penalty, which seems to have resulted from the fact that the initiative’s supporters have been able to fund a much larger advertising campaign than the opposition,” says Dan Schnur, director of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll and director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “The Proposition 34 campaign has been on the air and making up ground, but it is historically difficult to pass a ballot measure after it’s been below 50 percent.”

Support for banning the death penalty increased even further when voters were read the ballot language for Proposition 34, rather than a brief statement. The ballot language includes an explanation of the fiscal impact of the measure, with estimated savings from trials and appeals of $100 million in the first few years, growing to $130 million annually after that; it also states that people found guilty of murder must work while in prison, with their wages applied to victim restitution.

When read the ballot language, including fiscal impact, a plurality of voters support repealing the death penalty: 45 percent of voters support Proposition 34 and 42 percent oppose it, with 11 percent undecided.

When read the ballot language, white voters were evenly split on repealing the death penalty, 43-43. Forty-seven percent of minority voters support repealing the death penalty, including 50 percent of black voters and 48 percent of Latino voters. Forty-one percent of minority voters oppose Proposition 34, including 35 percent of black voters and 39 percent of Latino voters.

Older voters were also evenly split on repealing the death penalty when read the ballot language. Forty-four percent of voters over age 50 support Proposition 34, and 44 percent oppose it. Among voters aged 18-49, 46 percent support Proposition 34, and 40 percent oppose it.

California Voters Support Revising “Three Strikes” Law

In addition, California voters are overwhelmingly in favor of Proposition 36, which would revise the state’s “three strikes” law and impose life sentences only when the third felony conviction is “serious or violent.”

More than two-thirds of registered Democratic voters and voters with no party preference are in favor of Proposition 36. Among Democratic voters, Proposition 36 is ahead 70-18; among voters with no party preference, the measure is ahead 68-19. The proposition also has majority support among California’s registered Republicans, with 53 percent supporting a revision to the “three strikes” law and 35 percent opposed.

“This is what happens when tough-on-crime conservatism meets fiscal conservatism in an era of tight budgets,” Schnur says. “Unless the opposition can convince voters that the criminals being affected by this are still dangerous, Proposition 36 looks pretty safe.”

Overall, 64 percent of California voters support Proposition 36 after being read the ballot language, and 24 percent oppose it. With relatively low levels of advertising spending, voter opinion on the ballot initiative has remained steady since the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll conducted in September, when 67 percent of voters supported Proposition 36 and 18 percent opposed it.
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/divided-on-death-penalty.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/divided-on-death-penalty.html California Polling Source Alert State Politics Voter Demographics ballot initiatives California politics death penalty polling Tue, 30 Oct 2012 09:00:00 -0800
Over the past month, support for Proposition 37 has sharply declined among California voters, according to results of the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

The ballot initiative, which would require new labeling for food that contains genetically modified ingredients, currently garners support from 44 percent of California voters — a 17-point drop from the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll conducted in September 2012. The latest poll shows that 42 percent of voters oppose the measure and 13 percent are undecided. In September, 61 percent of voters supported the measure, 25 percent opposed it and 13 percent were undecided.

As opponents of the ballot initiative have poured money into advertising against the measure — with funding levels of nearly 5 to 1 over their adversaries — proponents of the proposition have struggled to keep up.

“A term like ‘genetically modified food’ sounds very scary, so it’s not surprising that support for the measure was initially so strong,” says Dan Schnur, director of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll and director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “The challenge for the opposition has been to convince voters that there are economic consequences such as increased grocery prices to consider, and it appears that they are in the process of doing just that.

“But the most significant driving force behind this shift is the amount of money that the opposition has put into the campaign. When voters hear a message so much more strongly from one side than the other, it’s not surprising to see the poll numbers move like this,” Schnur says.

Video of Schnur and Los Angeles Times reporter Marc Lifsher discussing Proposition 37:



Support for Proposition 37 has also slipped significantly across party lines. Among registered Democrats, support has declined by 12 percentage points since September, with the initiative ahead 54 percent to 32 percent. Among registered Republicans, the initiative is lagging 30 percent to 58 percent (a decline of 19 points since September); and with “decline to state” voters, the initiative stands at 49 percent to 36 percent (down 14 points).

Younger Californians continue to support the measure more strongly than older voters, but their margin of support has also slipped since the September poll. Voters aged 18 to 49 support the initiative 55 percent to 35 percent (down 11 points since September); voters 50 and older now oppose the measure 36 percent to 49 percent (a decline of 20 points since September).

Support for the ballot initiative has dipped among both men and women: Men now oppose the measure 40 percent to 48 percent (previously, males supported it by 54 percent to 32 percent). Women support the initiative 49 percent to 37 percent; however, the margin has tightened significantly since September, when females supported the measure 67 percent to 19 percent. ]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/genetically-modified-food.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/genetically-modified-food.html California Polling Source Alert State Politics Voter Demographics ballot initiatives California politics polling Tue, 30 Oct 2012 08:55:00 -0800 From teacher pay to No Child Left Behind, a new chart from the USC Rossier School of Education compares the positions of President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney on the most important education topics.

“There is less difference between the candidates on education than on many issues,” says Dominic Brewer of the USC Rossier School. “Both, for example, support standards-based accountability, albeit with a significant overhaul, more charter schools, and reformed teacher evaluation systems.

“Two big differences are Governor Romney’s plan that Federal Title I funds be usable at any public or private school, as well as federal student aid reform, while President Obama has pressed for stronger regulation of for-profit higher education,” Brewer says.

]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/romney-and-obama-education-issues.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/romney-and-obama-education-issues.html Children Education Feature K-12 Barack Obama charter schools children education election 2012 Mitt Romney Fri, 19 Oct 2012 09:00:00 -0800
A majority of California voters support a November ballot initiative that would temporarily increase the state’s income tax on high earners and raise the sales tax, but this support has taken a tumble in the last few months, according to the latest results from the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

Backed by Gov. Jerry Brown, Proposition 30 would raise the state income tax on those earning more than $250,000 a year for seven years and increase the sales tax by a quarter of a cent to fund public education and public safety.

In the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll, 54 percent of voters said they supported the measure and 37 percent opposed it after being read the ballot language. This is a decline in support of nearly 10 percentage points since March 2012, when the poll showed 64 percent of Californians in support of the measure, and 33 percent opposed.

Support for Prop. 30 declined even more when voters were read two brief statements outlining positions for and against the measure. The first statement said, “after years of deficit spending, Governor Brown has cut billions in spending; we have made progress but we still have serious budget problems,” and argued that voters should take a stand against further cuts to education and public safety, make the wealthy pay their fair share, and help balance the budget. The second statement said, “Sacramento politicians need to cut wasteful spending before raising our taxes,” and mentioned high-speed rail and salary increases in Sacramento. After respondents were read these statements, support for the initiative dropped to 48 percent in favor, and 43 percent against.

“Californians are usually very resistant to raising taxes on themselves, but the prospect of big spending cuts to public education has helped Proposition 30 preserve its lead,” says Dan Schnur, director of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll and director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “But any initiative that that is so close to 50 percent in the polls is vulnerable, and these results show that the opposition message is convincing. The question is whether the opposition has the money to make sure their message is heard.”

Schnur and the Los Angeles Times’ Evan Halper and Chris Megerian discuss Propositions 30 and 38 here:



Though overall support for Brown’s ballot proposition has declined, the intensity of support for the measure has increased slightly. In March 2012, 37 percent of voters strongly favored Prop. 30, compared with 41 percent who strongly favor it in the latest poll (conducted September 17-23).

“Intensity matters in a ballot issue and who votes, and while the level of support for Prop. 30 has gone down over three polls and there is still a majority, this one looks to be very close,” says Stan Greenberg, CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic polling firm that conducted the poll with Republican polling firm American Viewpoint.

Support for Prop. 30 was starkly split along age lines, with 75 percent of 18-to-29-year-old voters supporting the measure, compared with 46 percent of those 50 and older.

Overall, Democratic voters were 69-20 in support of Prop. 30, Republican voters were 28-64, and voters who indicated no party preference were 58-32.

“The news out of Sacramento has been creating downward pressure on Proposition 30, and the more voters hear about it, the less likely they are to support it,” says Dave Kanevsky, research director of American Viewpoint. “This is a ballot measure that could die a death by a thousand cuts.”

Proposition 38

One of those thousand cuts could be the competing November ballot initiative backed by attorney Molly Munger, which would raise income taxes for most Californians on a sliding scale. Munger’s initiative, Proposition 38, was opposed by a majority of voters in the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

Fifty-two percent of voters oppose Prop. 38, while 34 percent support it. When respondents were read an additional statement describing the fiscal impact of the initiative — including $10 billion in new revenues over the next two years — the numbers barely budged, with 50 percent opposing the initiative and 39 percent in favor.

“It’s very rare to see support for an initiative grow as the campaign goes on,” Schnur says. “Munger’s chances are slim, but with her first ads directly engaging Prop. 30, this could have an effect on the governor’s initiative.”

Public Employee Pensions

Voters largely support the recent law limiting public employee pensions and raising the retirement age — and they may have the appetite for more, according to the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

Forty-five percent of voters agreed with a statement that the law is a fair, balanced solution that makes some much needed changes to balance the budget long-term, while also protecting public employees.

But 39 percent of voters agreed with a statement that the largest pension reform in California history didn’t go far enough, that public employees continue to receive much more generous pensions than people who work in the private sector, and that the reforms only tackle a fraction of the state’s pension obligations.

The law also caps benefits for the highest-paid employees. Twenty percent of voters said the reform went too far, as did 34 percent of Latino voters. Thirty percent said the law did not go far enough, and 31 percent said it struck a good balance between reforming the pension system and reducing the impact of pensions on the state debt.

“Jerry Brown needed a pension reform package that passed the smell test with voters in order to pass his ballot initiative,” Schnur says. “It appears he got enough to help him in November, but in the long run there is further appetite for pension reform.”
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/california-poll-tax-pension.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/california-poll-tax-pension.html California Education Polling Source Alert State Politics U.S. Taxes budget California politics education labor polling taxes transportation Mon, 01 Oct 2012 09:00:00 -0800
The presidential debates have long been considered a potential turning point for any campaign. But with the rise of social media — and of the millennial generation becoming old enough to vote — we should expect to see the impact of the debates change in significant ways.

Thomas Hollihan, professor of communication at the USC Annenberg School, says that social media quickens everything it touches, including gaffes, mistakes, or even provocative post-debate commentary. The ability to go viral hastens the spread of information about the debates.

Social media can also reinforce biases voters already hold toward the candidates, Hollihan says. “Liberals will find most of their social media contacts are people who share their political beliefs, and the same is true for conservatives,” he notes. “Most of us are looking for confirmation of whom we already approve of.”

Gordon Stables, clinical assistant professor at the USC Annenberg School, says voters don’t have to wait for Wednesday’s debate to see the effect of social media.

“I think you’ve already had a glimmer of what can happen,” says Stables, who also serves as director of debate and forensics for the Trojan Debate Squad. “The ability to package small quotes or significant moments can be done now almost immediately. Significant moments will be in videos that can be put in ads in a few hours.”

Rampant political advertising ensures that even those who don’t watch the debates can be affected by the messages voters learn from them. Stables points to Mitt Romney’s controversial “47 percent” comment at a fundraising event, which is now appearing in pro-Obama ads playing in Ohio.

The televised debates have enraptured the media and voters since the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate. Hollihan notes that the popularity of those debates isn’t much of a surprise — back then there were fewer alternatives on TV.

But today’s audiences are fragmented, with their attention divided by a cacophony of mediums and political score-keeping. Will social media pull eyeballs away from the TV?

As younger voters acquire greater influence, it’s likely that the format of the debate will change, Stables says. There will be tremendous pressure on the groups sponsoring the presidential debates to stay relevant to new audiences. Google+ Hangouts or other platforms will maximize that audience.

In a sense, this is part of the debate’s natural evolution, Stables adds. The Kennedy-Nixon debates were appealing partly because of the novelty of a new medium.
 
“I could see it not being exclusively in a traditional soundstage or production model. That might change like it did in 1960,” Stables says.

Hollihan agrees that the debates could change, as it becomes easier to watch them at any time. But that doesn’t mean that televised debates matter any less in 2012 — partly because of the viral nature of media.

“The debate has to be understood as more than just the interaction between the candidates on camera,” Hollihan says. He adds that the TV debate is still relevant, because it drives discussion in the news media and on social networks. “It’s a mistake to think of the debate as the only text voters are exposed to.”
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/presidential-debates.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/presidential-debates.html Election Coverage Election History Elections In Brief Media Coverage Patterns Message Management New Media and Campaign Management Voter Demographics Barack Obama debate Facebook John F. Kennedy media Mitt Romney Richard Nixon Twitter young voters Mon, 01 Oct 2012 09:00:00 -0800
California voters are overwhelmingly in favor of revising the state’s “three strikes” law, according to the latest results from the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll.

Two-thirds of voters — including 67 percent of voters who vote on ballot initiatives — said they support Proposition 36, which would change the “three strikes” law in California so that 25-years-to-life sentences are imposed only when the third felony is “serious or violent.” Twenty percent of voters oppose Prop. 36.

Latino voters were less likely than voters overall — and nearly 10 percentage points less likely than white voters — to support Prop. 36, with 59 percent of Latino voters in favor of revising “three strikes” and 27 percent opposed. Among white voters, 69 percent support the measure and 18 percent oppose it. Among black voters, 73 percent favor revising “three strikes” and 18 percent oppose it.

California voters were equally in favor of revising “three strikes” regardless of whether they were read a statement explaining the fiscal impact and estimated $70 million in state savings related to prison and parole operations: 66 percent of respondents who were read a fiscal impact statement favored Prop. 36, and 20 percent opposed it.

Men were more likely than women to oppose revising “three strikes,” with 24 percent of men opposed to Prop. 36 and 65 percent supporting the measure. Among women, 15 percent opposed the measure, and 69 percent supported it.

Across party lines, a majority of voters were in favor of revising “three strikes” in California: Prop. 36 was favored 70-18 among Democratic voters, 55-27 among Republican voters, and 70-16 among voters with no party preference.

Proposition 34: Death Penalty

Voters were much more split on the other criminal justice initiative on the November ballot, Proposition 34, which would repeal the death penalty in California and replace it with life imprisonment without the possibility of parole. The measure would apply retroactively to people already on death row.

“Opinions on the death penalty are fairly locked in,” says Dave Kanevsky, research director of Republican polling firm American Viewpoint, which conducted the poll with Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. “If this initiative is tied, it’s likely to lose, as undecideds generally break to the ‘no’ side and the fiscal argument does not move Republicans on the death penalty, as it moves voters on other initiatives.”

When read a brief statement about the proposition, 51 percent of voters opposed banning the death penalty and 38 percent supported it.

But the actual ballot wording of Prop. 34 narrowed the gap between the positions: After being read the ballot language, 45 percent of voters opposed repealing the death penalty and 43 percent supported it. The ballot language explains that people found guilty of murder must work while in prison, “with their wages applied to victim restitution fines.”

Voter opinion on Prop. 34 was virtually unchanged when voters were read a further statement explaining the fiscal impact related to trials and appeals that costs the state about $100 million annually. After hearing this statement explaining the fiscal impact of repealing the death penalty, 44 percent of voters supported Prop. 34, and 46 percent opposed it.
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/death-penalty-crime.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/10/death-penalty-crime.html California Polling Source Alert State Politics Voter Demographics budget California politics crime demographics polling voters Mon, 01 Oct 2012 08:55:00 -0800
Marijuana legalization is one of the hottest topics on the November 6 ballot this year, with six states voting on the issue, according to a new Ballotwatch Report released by USC’s Initiative & Referendum Institute.

Voters in 34 states will decide the fate of 159 ballot propositions, addressing issues including same-sex marriage, health care, tax increases, public employee unions, and gambling.

“The presidential election gets most of the attention, but it’s going to be a very interesting year at state level, with voters potentially passing a host of far-reaching new laws,” says John Matsusaka, president of the Initiative & Referendum Institute.

The 159 total propositions this election year match the number in 2010, and represent a slight increase from the 153 in 2008, Matsusaka notes. Factoring in propositions decided in elections before November, voters will decide 171 propositions during the course of 2012, down from 183 in 2010, 174 in 2008, and 225 in 2006.

“In a typical year, the most visible and controversial propositions are initiatives and referendums, issues that are placed on the ballot by citizen petition,” Matsusaka says. “Overall, initiative activity seems to have cooled off from its feverish pace in the 1990s.”

For 2012, the number of initiatives is 41, slightly down from 42 in 2010; it represents the smallest number of initiatives since 1984, when there were also 41 initiatives.

Multi-State Issues

Every year, several issues appear on the ballots of multiple states. This may happen as a result of a coordinated campaign by an interest group or, more often, as individual states respond to a common event, such as a court ruling. Multi-state issues can take on life and spread across the country if they meet with voter approval initially, and reveal unexpected popular support for an issue. For this reason, multi-state issues are worth watching as possible leading indicators of national trends.

Marijuana

Marijuana-related measures are on the ballot in six states. The most far-reaching propositions are citizen proposals that would legalize recreational use of cannabis: Colorado’s Amendment 64, Oregon’s Measure 80, and Washington’s I-502. Although federal law prohibits possession of marijuana, advocates of legalization believe that public opinion may be shifting in their favor. In 2008, Massachusetts voters approved Question 2, which decriminalized small amounts of the drug, making possession of less than one ounce subject only to a $100 fine. In 2010, California voters narrowly rejected (47-53) Proposition 19, which would have legalized personal use. The Colorado and Washington initiatives are leading in early polls, by 47-38 and 55-32, respectively, and could provide a bellwether victory for legalization.

Beginning in the 1990s, legalization advocates pursued a strategy of promoting laws that allowed medical use of marijuana. Currently, 17 states permit medical marijuana, most of them adopting their laws through the initiative process. This year, three more states will be voting on medical marijuana. Perhaps the most interesting state to watch is Arkansas, which would be the first Southern state to approve medical marijuana if the initiative is approved. Question 3 in Massachusetts gives voters the option to permit medical use of marijuana, and IR-124 in Montana asks voters to repeal recent action by the legislature (SB 423) that cut back significant parts of the state’s voter-approved medical marijuana law from 2004.

Marriage

Same-sex marriage has been a prominent issue on ballot propositions for almost a decade. Despite what appears to be some movement in public opinion in favor of gay marriage and a growing number of states that permit gay marriage, all state-level victories for same-sex marriage have come from courts or legislatures; voters have consistently voted to restrict marriage to one man and one woman when given the choice, with 30 of 31 measures banning gay marriage having passed to date.

This year, five states have marriage-related propositions on the ballot. Maine’s Question 1 and Maryland’s Question 6, both placed on the ballot by citizen petition, ask voters to repeal laws previously approved by voters that ban same-sex marriage. Washington’s R-74, also placed on the ballot by petition, asks voters to repeal a new law from the legislature that legalizes same-sex marriage.

One interesting thing to watch for this year is whether gay marriage advocates can achieve their first affirmative endorsement from the electorate directly in Maine, Maryland or Washington. Minnesota voters will decide whether to adopt a constitutional amendment banning same sex-marriage; in May, North Carolina voters approved such a ban.

Health Care

President Obama’s health care law, the Affordable Care Act, remains a source of controversy in the states. Four states (Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma) have approved propositions declaring that no individual or business shall be compelled to participate in a health care system, in what appears to be a partly symbolic judgment on the merits of Obamacare; while Colorado voters rejected a similar proposal. This year, Alabama, Florida, Montana and Wyoming voters will have the opportunity to express their views. These states are generally seen as moderate to conservative, but the election returns on these propositions will provide some insight into how the health care reform plan is being viewed and what the political landscape looks like for further health care reform.

Taxes

Taxes remain the most prevalent issue for ballot propositions this year, as is the case in almost every election year. Voters are facing 31 tax-related measures, most of which make small changes to the tax code, such as providing property tax exemptions to spouses of veterans who died in combat.

The most visible and controversial tax measures propose revenue increases. These measures will give a temperature reading about whether voters are warming toward taxes, after several years of extreme hostility. Two major tax initiatives will be decided in California. Proposition 30, sponsored by Gov. Jerry Brown, increases the income tax on earnings over $250,000 and increases the sales tax by 0.25 percent, for seven and four years, respectively. The proposition is supported by public employee unions and opposed by taxpayer groups; most business groups are remaining on the sideline in this campaign. Gov. Brown has argued that draconian cuts in state spending will be required if the measure isn’t approved. Proposition 38, sponsored by lawyer and education activist Molly Munger, raises income taxes across the board and for 12 years, and dedicates 60 percent of revenue to education. Proposition 38 is opposed by Gov. Brown’s coalition, largely out of fear that it may confuse voters and lead to the defeat of both tax measures. A minor controversy broke out during the summer when the legislature changed state law to list Gov. Brown’s proposition before all others on the ballot, breaking with standard practice that lists them in the order signatures are submitted. Proposition 30’s backers believe that listing it first on the ballot increases its chance of passage, although there does not appear to be any evidence in support of this belief.

Arizona’s Proposition 204 makes permanent a temporary sales tax increase from 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent that is due to expire in 2013, and mandates annual increases in state education spending. Similarly, South Dakota’s Initiated Measure 15 increases the state sales tax from 4 percent to 5 percent, with revenue dedicated to education and health care. In two separate measures, Arkansas voters will decide whether to raise the gas tax and the sales tax, in both cases to pay for interest on proposed bond issues related to transportation projects.

Missouri’s Proposition B, an initiative statute, proposes to increase tobacco taxes by $1 per pack, with revenue dedicated to health education. In June, California voters rejected Proposition 29, which also would have increased tobacco taxes by $1 per pack, with revenue dedicated to cancer research. The failure of Proposition 29 appears to have been due to its locking in spending on a particular program (cancer research), rather than to citizen aversion to higher tobacco taxes.

To download the full Ballotwatch Report, including a state-by-state analysis of upcoming ballot measures, click here.
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/09/ballot-initiatives.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/09/ballot-initiatives.html California Education Feature Health Care Reform State & Local Elections State Politics U.S. Taxes Union Vote ballot initiatives Barack Obama drugs education gambling gay marriage health care Jerry Brown labor taxes transportation unions Fri, 14 Sep 2012 09:00:00 -0800
The 2012 Republican and Democratic conventions are over... the delegates have packed up and gone home, leaving Tampa and Charlotte to sweep up the confetti. Mitt Romney experienced almost no bounce in the polls after his big show, and it looks like President Obama isn’t likely to see a significant bounce either. Is the traditional post-convention bounce declining, and does it even matter by November?

“A bounce can be very important. There are elections in recent memory, like 1992 for Clinton, where the convention seemed to matter a great deal. Clinton left the convention with a huge bounce, and much of it held through Election Day,” says Christian Grose of the USC Dornsife College, an expert on elections and media.

Grose says that the impact of Obama’s convention speech may be small because the American public already knows him and thus there isn’t a lot to be learned. “Once a president has been in office for four years, three days of a convention will not matter that much in influencing opinion. However, when a candidate is a challenger or there is no incumbent, the conventions can sometimes lead to larger bounces.”

There are other factors that may have dampened chances of a big bounce. “The polls leading into the conventions were exceedingly close, with both candidates tied or within the margin of error, and only about 5 to 10 percent of voters undecided,” Grose points out. “Those who have already decided are unlikely to be persuaded by a convention. Thus any bounce that Romney or Obama could pick up is limited, given the small percentage of undecided voters. If a few undecideds move in the direction of either candidate, that would be considered a good bounce, given how tight this election appears to be.”

The minimal bounce — a trend that may last beyond the 2012 election — also has to do with fundamental changes in what a political convention is, and how the media covers it. Grose says that less attention is given to conventions today than in the past. “Conventions used to matter for choosing the nominee decades ago, and people paid attention. Following rule changes in the 1970s, conventions became less and less important for choosing nominees, and more of a show for the nominated candidates,” he explains. “In the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, the media covered the conventions. This year, however, the networks have substantially reduced their coverage. Conventions used to be four days long, but the networks intended to only cover three days, and very few hours at that. With the fragmentation of television, so that viewers can choose to watch reality shows instead of conventions, there simply are fewer eyes on the conventions.”

And fewer eyes mean fewer chances to change minds.
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/09/post-convention-bounce.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/09/post-convention-bounce.html Election Coverage Election History Media Coverage Patterns Party Conventions Polling Source Alert Barack Obama Bill Clinton media Mitt Romney party conventions polling Fri, 07 Sep 2012 09:00:00 -0800
In 2012, Twitter has a force that it didn’t have during the 2008 election cycle. And its users have something to say about politics. When actor Clint Eastwood gave an unusual speech to an empty chair during the Republican National Convention, @ClintsChair and @InvisibleObama Twitter accounts popped up instantaneously. President Obama found it worthwhile to join the meme himself, tweeting a photo with the legend “This seat’s taken.” Republicans responded with the #EmptyChairDay hashtag campaign, taking to Twitter with their complaints about the Democratic Party. And politicians and media closely tracked the number of tweets per minute triggered by different Democratic and Republican convention speakers.

“On Election Day in 2008 there were 1.8 million tweets. Twitter is saying that now they get the same number of tweets every six minutes,” notes Karen North of the USC Annenberg School, an expert on social media and Internet communication.

“In 2008, the two major parties’ conventions drew a combined 365,000 tweets. This year’s Republican convention generated about four million tweets, and before its final night the Democratic gathering had already surpassed five million,” add Morley Winograd of the USC Annenberg School and scholar Michael Hais, co-authors of Millennial Momentum: How a New Generation Is Remaking America and Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics. “Michelle Obama’s speech generated almost twice as many tweets per minute (28,003) as it was being delivered than Romney’s acceptance speech (14,289). President Clinton came close to the First Lady, with more than 22,087 tweets per minute at the peak of conversational activity.” And on the final night of the Democratic convention, President Obama’s tweet-per-minute rate doubled that achieved by the First Lady.

Twitter has a serious role to play as the election heats up, adds Johanna Blakley of the USC Annenberg School, an expert on digital technology and the media habits of liberals and conservatives. “Twitter provides a quick glimpse into the mindshare of its users, and so anyone who wants to find out how Bill Clinton’s DNC speech was being received (while he was giving it!) could glance at the public timeline and get a pretty good idea of what was catching on and what wasn’t.”

Winograd and Hais agree: “Twitter can give commentators and general audiences a very quick read on the reaction to events as they happen, thereby causing the conversation to take a particular direction rather than the one intended. ... The volume and intensity of the comments on Eastwood caused Romney’s acceptance speech and reactions to it to be drowned out in the rest of the media’s coverage.”

President Obama’s “This seat’s taken” tweet demonstrates how well attuned his campaign is to the medium and its user ethos, according to Winograd and Hais. They add that Obama has a substantial advantage over Romney among millennial voters, and he’s hoping to reinforce their loyalty through the use of social media.

Twitter has a greater impact on younger voters, since they consume more of their information through social media, but its demographic appeal is broad, says North. “Americans are really social animals, and one of the things we like is the feeling that we know someone.” She says that social media is good at creating this sense of a personal relationship, making Twitter voters feel connected to candidates and their causes. “Now social media is the biggest tool in the toolbox for getting people out to vote.”

Winograd and Hais also feel that Twitter’s greatest political power is in driving people to the polls. “It’s hard to believe that anyone would make up their mind about who to vote for based on a tweet. But it is possible to imagine that receiving a large number of tweets from your friends encouraging you to vote would have an impact on your likelihood to vote.” They add: “In this election, Twitter’s impact will be felt more in terms of turnout than persuasion.” 

While tweets per minute and #Eastwooding may get attention, Blakley cautions that social media is still just a part of the whole picture. “A lot of the information that’s disseminated through Twitter comes from or is sparked by content that originated on traditional media platforms, and so I think we have to be careful about assuming that we can draw distinct lines between ‘old’ media platforms and new ones like Twitter,” she says. “We live cross-platform lives, and there will be no escape from the election on any one of them.”
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/09/twitter-and-the-election.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/09/twitter-and-the-election.html In Brief Media Coverage Patterns Message Management New Media and Campaign Management Party Conventions Voter Demographics Barack Obama Bill Clinton debate election 2008 election 2012 Facebook media Michelle Obama Mitt Romney party conventions Twitter young voters Fri, 07 Sep 2012 09:00:00 -0800
A slim majority of Californians favor enacting Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown’s ballot initiative that would raise taxes in order to avoid further spending reductions in education and public safety, finds a new poll from Policy Analysis for California Education (PACE) and the USC Rossier School of Education. But the arguments against the initiative carry much greater weight with voters, imperiling the proposition’s chances of passage when Californians cast their ballots in November.

The PACE/USC Rossier Poll found that roughly 55 percent of Californians support Proposition 30, and 36 percent oppose it — making the poll one of several showing that support for the initiative is perilously close to the 50 percent threshold needed for passage. When arguments for and against Proposition 30 were compared, Californians were far more likely to agree with the initiative’s opponents. About 49 percent agreed with the statement that politicians should focus on wasteful spending before raising taxes, compared with 35 percent who agreed that voters should “take a stand against further cuts to schools and public safety, make the wealthy pay their fair share, and help balance the budget.”

Even among parents, 51 percent agreed the focus should be placed first on cutting waste before raising taxes to fund education and public safety.

“Californians are willing to spend money in order to protect their schools from spending cuts. But they also believe that state government is spending too much money on things that aren’t necessary and want to see that spending reined in before supporting the governor’s initiative,” said poll director Dan Schnur, who also serves as director of USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics. “Jerry Brown can still pass Proposition 30, but first he has to convince voters that state government can be trusted with their tax dollars.”

The proposition would raise the state sales tax by a quarter-cent for four years and taxes on incomes of more than $250,000 for seven years to fund schools and public safety.

The PACE/USC Rossier Poll showed that Proposition 38, the other tax measure to fund schools and early childhood education, was losing, with roughly 40 percent of Californians in support and nearly 49 percent opposed.

When asked where they would spend the money if either proposition passed, Californians said they would direct funds to restore previous education budget cuts and to prevent further cuts, reflecting low expectations for a state system that has been subject to repeated funding cuts in recent years.

If the tax initiatives fail and further education cuts need to be made, Californians said they would choose to cut transportation of students to school (33 percent), increase class sizes (32 percent) or shorten the school year (31 percent) over cutting extracurricular sports and music programs (23 percent) or reducing teacher salaries (17 percent).

State Schools in Bad Shape

The PACE/USC Rossier Poll also showed that Californians think the state’s education system is in poor shape, with too much waste and bureaucracy and students not prepared for higher education or work after high school.

On average, Californians gave their state and local schools a grade of “C-.”

Nearly 42 percent of Californians graded the state’s schools with a “D” or “F,” and 26 percent gave their local schools those grades. When the PACE/USC Rossier poll was first conducted in May, just 20 percent of Californians gave their local school a “D” or “F” grade.

Californians were also asked to rank various aspects of the state’s public schools on a scale of 0 (worst) to 10 (best). Respondents gave the best mean score — a 5 — to the state schools’ ability to teach students the basics: reading, writing and math. They gave a mean score of 4.3 to “preparing students for a four-year university” and a mean rating of 4.3 to “holding principals, teachers and parents accountable for student performance.”

]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/08/jerry-browns-tax-initiative-vu.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/08/jerry-browns-tax-initiative-vu.html California Education K-12 Polling Source Alert State & Local Elections State Politics U.S. Taxes ballot initiatives California politics education Jerry Brown polling taxes Thu, 23 Aug 2012 09:00:00 -0800
By Elizabeth Currid-Halkett

No one gets elected without relying on the kindness — or, more accurately, the wallets — of strangers, and there is no denying that President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney have the fabulously rich among their supporters. In June, Romney raised a record-breaking $106 million, compared with Obama’s “paltry” $71 million. But a quick scan of the candidates’ wealthiest supporters reveals a startling difference that may have big consequences for the outcome of the election.

Romney’s plutocrat backers include Ron Perelman, the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson. Wall Street captains and industrial tycoons host fundraisers for him in the Hamptons, and Forbes eagerly writes up the happenings. Meanwhile, Obama has every A-list Hollywood star chomping at the bit to host a fundraiser for him. George Clooney threw a big party for the president at his palatial Hollywood Hills home, while Vogue Editor-in-Chief Anna Wintour opened up her Greenwich Village brownstone to Obama donors. The luminaries regularly appear in photo spreads in Us Weekly and People.

The easiest way to think about this is that Romney and Obama appeal to two different groups of donors: the very, very rich, and the rich and famous. Both groups encapsulate the very definition of elite and make up the top 1 percent of income earners, a group that has become the political punching bag in the current war on inequality. So while the rich may alienate middle class voters, neither Romney nor Obama can do without their slice of these special people who donate millions of dollars and garner pots of media ink ... even if, ultimately, their success will hinge on their appeal among middle class voters. In the eyes of these voters, is it better to have the ridiculously rich or the not-quite-so-ridiculously rich and famous on your side?

Obama’s campaign has struggled to find a place for its A-list supporters, as witnessed by its complicated and downplayed relationship with Wintour. In general, associations with the economic elite are seen as so unpalatable and risky that the president gave up his trip to Martha’s Vineyard and is not attending any campaign fundraisers in the Hamptons this summer.

Romney, by contrast, seems less conscious of his connections to wealth, not realizing, for example, the difference between being friends with NASCAR owners and watching a NASCAR race with a six-pack of Budweiser. Occupy Wall Street and MoveOn.org protestors greeted his fundraiser at David Koch’s beach house. ABC reported of the protesters, “As a $400,000 dollar Rolls Royce passed the barricaded crowd, they decided to take their message to the beach — which also serves as the backyard of Koch’s home.” Still, not to worry.

Ostensibly, the idolatry of movie stars, musicians and artists may seem more alienating than Romney supporters’ piles of cash. After all, everyone knows politicians court money, even as they simultaneously strive to paint their portrait as an everyman. But celebrities, as distant and elite as they may initially seem, are the cultural currency of today’s society. Not only do so many individuals want to be just like them; the media has bred a fiction that they are just like us — throwing out their garbage, shopping for groceries, and getting lattes at Starbucks. They are Roland Barthes’ veritable mythology of the 21st century.

And no one eats up their comings and goings quite like middle class voters, who have ceased to see celebrities as an elite group and more as examples of their own potential should they get their own reality TV show or launch a successful Twitter account.

Thus in a campaign that pivots on class distinctions, aligning oneself with celebrities may be far less alienating than cavorting with the super rich. Middle class voters care what their celebrities have to say; they want to be just like them; and with the help of reality TV, TMZ and US Weekly’s “Just Like Us” spread, they believe they have much in common with stars. Being Ron Perelman or a titan of Wall Street is an entirely different matter altogether. Ivy League educations, private high schools and Park Avenue penthouses represent obvious barriers to entry — middle class voters don’t think they’ve got a fighting chance of attaining such wealth.

The thing about 21st-century celebrity is that it seems that anyone can attain it if they really try. And with that in mind, Obama’s courting of society’s favorite celebrities may actually better connect him to those mercurial middle class swing voters than all those red carpets and camera flashes might lead you to believe.

This op-ed originally appeared on the Princeton University Press blog.

Elizabeth Currid-Halkett is associate professor at the USC Price School of Public Policy and author of The Warhol Economy: How Fashion, Art and Music Drive New York City and Starstruck: The Business of Celebrity. Contact her at (213) 740-4012 or currid@usc.edu. ]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/08/fundraising-celebrity-rich.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/08/fundraising-celebrity-rich.html American Studies/Culture Campaign Finance Celebrity Endorsements In Brief Voter Demographics Barack Obama campaign finance celebrity endorsements Mitt Romney voters Tue, 14 Aug 2012 09:00:00 -0800
The new USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times Poll shows that a majority of California voters who plan to support Mitt Romney in November’s presidential election consider their decision to be a vote against President Barack Obama, rather than one on behalf of Romney.

Of those who say they will vote for Romney, 51 percent characterize their choice as a vote against Obama rather than a vote for Romney; this signals a lack of enthusiasm for the former Massachusetts governor among California’s Republican voters. Forty-four percent of Romney supporters say their vote is a vote for Romney, as opposed to one against Obama.


]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/05/romney-the-anti-obama.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/05/romney-the-anti-obama.html California Party Politics Polling Source Alert Barack Obama California politics Mitt Romney polling voters Wed, 30 May 2012 09:00:00 -0800
Despite President Barack Obama’s announcement that he favors legalizing same-sex marriage, 75 percent of Californians say gay marriage won’t be a major issue or will be just one of many factors they consider at the ballot box. Peer into the minds of California voters with the new USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times Poll.

Twenty percent of California voters say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on same-sex marriage. Among these voters for whom gay marriage is a decisive issue, neither side appears to benefit: 21 percent of same-sex marriage supporters and 21 percent of voters who oppose gay marriage or who support civil unions say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on the issue.

Of statewide voters surveyed May 17-21, 46 percent believe gays and lesbians should have the legal right to marry, 25 percent say gay couples should have the same legal rights as straight couples, and 13 percent say there should be no legal recognition of gay and lesbian couples. (In 2010, the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll showed Californians supporting same-sex marriage by a 52-40 margin.)

“President Obama’s support for same-sex marriage has attracted a huge amount of public and media attention, but it doesn’t appear that it has changed very many votes,” says Dan Schnur, director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at USC and director of the poll. “Strong partisans on both sides of this issue may feel more intensely about Obama than they did previously, but same-sex marriage will be much more of a motivator for the two parties’ ideological bases than a persuader for swing voters.”

Overall, seven out of 10 voters — including 40 percent of Republicans — say they favor full legal rights for gay and lesbian couples. Fifty-six percent of Californians say they plan to vote for Obama and 36 percent choose Republican front-runner Mitt Romney; this mirrors long-held support in California for Democratic candidates.

Other Issues: Health Care, Spending, Taxes

Obama’s approval rating among Latino voters has grown since the last USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll. Currently, 72 percent of Latinos say they approve of the job Obama is doing, compared with 22 percent who disapprove. In March 2012, Obama’s approval rating among Latinos was 65-27.

California voters also overwhelmingly favor the president’s approach over Romney’s on several issues, including the interests of women, support for the middle class, and health care affordability.

When asked who would do a better job protecting the interests of women, voters favor Obama over Romney 59 percent to 23 percent. On health care accessibility and affordability, Obama leads Romney 57 percent to 23 percent. And when asked who would be a stronger voice for the middle class, 56 percent of voters pick Obama and 29 percent choose Romney.

Californians are evenly split on who they believe is strongest on the issue of spending: 41 percent of voters pick Obama, and 41 percent choose Romney.

When asked who has the right approach to budget deficits, 45 percent of California voters choose Obama, while 34 percent pick Romney. Forty-nine percent of voters agree with Obama’s stance on taxes, while 34 percent support Romney’s approach.
]]> http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/05/gay-marriage-california-voters.html http://election2012.usc.edu/2012/05/gay-marriage-california-voters.html California Election Coverage Polling Source Alert Voter Demographics Barack Obama budget California politics gay marriage health care Latinos Mitt Romney polling taxes voters women Wed, 30 May 2012 09:00:00 -0800